Robinhood Gets Onchain, Mastercard Embraces Crypto, and Polymarket Closes in on $200M
Weekly Market Update #76
In partnership with Elementus
Happy start to the week! Welcome back to the Reflexivity Weekly Market Update — your concise rundown of the biggest moves in crypto. If someone forwarded you this, you can Sign up here for free to get it straight to your inbox!
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Before jumping into last week’s action, check out some of the research published last week by the Reflexivity team:
Major Market Developments:
📈 Robinhood announces 'Stock Tokens' and a new upcoming L2 built on the Arbitrum stack.
🏦 Nano Labs moves entire $500 M treasury into BNB
💳 Chainlink × Mastercard to let 3 B+ cardholders buy crypto on‑chain
📈 Polymarket nears $200 M raise at $1 B+ valuation
⚙️ Aave V3 deployment on Aptos approved
🚀 pumpdotfun 2.0 launches on iOS & Android
🌙 Moonshot Create intent‑based trading toolkit unveiled
📑 Bakkt files $1 B shelf, eyes BTC purchases
🔒 Katana, a Polygon L2, goes live with $200M in deposits, 15 M KAT rewards for early LBTC deposits
🛡 Fragmetric releases on‑chain $FRAG checker
🧠 Zama raises $57 M Series B for FHE tech
🌐 World Liberty lands $100 M; $WLFI transfers coming
🐧 CBOE seeks $PENGU ETF tied to Pudgy Penguin NFTs
Fear & Greed Index:
This week’s reading of 65 tilts firmly into greed territory. Historically, the mid‑60s often precede short rallies but can also mark the first frothy foothold before momentum stalls. In other words: sentiment is bullish, yet not euphoric, enough enthusiasm to drive bids, but still room for profit‑taking if a negative catalyst appears.
Note: The index ranges from 0 (extreme fear during capitulations and sell-offs) to 100 (extreme greed during euphoric, overbought conditions).
ETF Flows:
Spot-Bitcoin ETFs absorbed a powerful $2.21 billion between 23 and 27 June, their second-strongest weekly haul of the month. BlackRock’s IBIT pulled in $1.31 billion (peaking at $436 million on 24 June), while Fidelity’s FBTC added $505 million and ARK/21Shares’ ARKB staged a comeback with $268 million, including a punchy $150 million on Friday. Minor creations in smaller funds and a $6 million trickle from Grayscale’s GBTC rounded out the flow picture, driving four of five sessions comfortably positive and leaving Thursday’s quieter $227 million intake as the lone sub-$350 million day.
Ethereum vehicles also advanced, collecting a net $284 million. BlackRock’s ETHA contributed $233 million, Fidelity’s FETH chipped in $68 million, and the niche ETHW fund garnered $8 million. Although a one-day, –$39 million duo of redemptions (Bitwise ETHE and Grayscale’s trust) flipped on 26 June, the other four days were firmly in the black, topped by $101 million on Monday. Together, the flows show investors still favouring Bitcoin by a four-to-one margin but continuing to broaden allocations to Ether, especially through the same low-fee newcomers dominating Bitcoin inflows.
Spotlight 🔦
On-chain prediction platform Polymarket is reportedly finalizing a $200 million funding round that would peg its post-money valuation above $1 billion. The landmark raise signals two things: institutional capital now sees real, scalable revenue in crypto‑native information markets, and the sector’s regulatory overhang is easing enough for blue‑chip funds to step in. Polymarket has grown from a niche “yes‑or‑no” venue into a sprawling derivatives board where traders price probabilities on elections, sports, macro data and even ETF approvals. Fresh capital at unicorn scale will let the project deepen liquidity incentives, expand to additional chains, and fortify compliance ahead of the 2026 US election cycle, when prediction volumes historically spike. More broadly, the deal validates the thesis that crowd-sourced odds can outperform traditional polling and that tokenized trading on real-world events is evolving from curiosity to a mainstream asset class.
Rapid Reflexivity: Quick Market Takes ⚡
Treasury rotation accelerates: Nano Labs moves its entire $500 M reserve into BNB, Aurora Mobile approves up to 20 % of cash for crypto, Lion Group adds $2 M HYPE, while Bakkt files a $1 B shelf it may tap for Bitcoin buys.
Payment giants lean in: Chainlink × Mastercard deal could let 3 B+ cardholders purchase crypto directly on‑chain.
Prediction‑market funding spree: Polymarket nears a $200 M raise at a $1 B+ valuation; rival Kalshi secures $100 M led by Paradigm.
DeFi infra upgrades: Aave V3 deployment on Aptos approved; Infinex Connect launches cross‑protocol margin; Moonshot Create and pumpdotfun 2.0 roll out retail‑friendly trading tools.
Yield & launchpads: Katana mainnet goes live soon with a 15 M KAT incentive pool; Fragmetric unveils its on‑chain checker ahead of token drop.
Stable‑value & ETF moves: CBOE files 19b‑4 for a $PENGU ETF tied to Pudgy Penguins NFTs, hinting at a playful expansion of spot‑asset products.
Enterprise privacy funding: FHE pioneer Zama raises $57 M Series B to commercialise fully homomorphic encryption for blockchains.
Tokenized finance: World Liberty lands $100 M from Aqua1Fund and readies $WLFI transfers; JD.com‑style push gets echoed as corporations eye on‑chain rails.
Governance risk flare‑up: Allegations surface that Across Protocol insiders used hidden wallets to reroute $23 M from DAO coffers to their private firm, reviving debates on DAO transparency and quorum design.
Pudgy Penguins’ price jumped last week majorly because, on 26 June, the Cboe lodged a 19b‑4 application for an ETF that blends tokenized assets with NFTs, placing PENGU at its heart. Sei was also one of the largest gainers of the week, largely due to Wyoming’s State Treasurer putting SEI on the shortlist of candidate settlement layers for WYST, the state‑sponsored dollar‑stablecoin pilot.
Disclaimer: This research report is exactly that — a research report. It is not intended to serve as financial advice, nor should you blindly assume that any of the information is accurate without confirming through your own research. Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and other digital assets are incredibly risky, and nothing in this report should be considered an endorsement to buy or sell any asset. Never invest more than you are willing to lose, and understand the risk that you are taking. Do your own research. All information in this report is for educational purposes only and should not be the basis for any investment decisions that you make.