Guarded Optimism: Neutral Sentiment and Mixed Flows Define the Week
Weekly Market Update #72
In partnership with Elementus
Happy start to the week! Welcome back to the Reflexivity Weekly Market Update — your concise rundown of the biggest moves in crypto. If someone forwarded you this, you can Sign up here for free to get it straight to your inbox!
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Before jumping into last week’s action, check out some of the research published last week by the Reflexivity team:
-Maple Finance: The First Institutional Asset Manager On-Chain
Major Market Developments:
💰 SharpLink unveils $425 M ETH treasury plan
🏦 DJT inks $2.5 B BTC reserve deal; Strive raises $750 M for more Bitcoin; GameStop buys 4,710 BTC
🏛 Circle files to IPO on NYSE; also freezes $58 M USDC tied to Libra scandal
🔗 Metamask adds native Solana wallets
📲 Telegram seeks $1.5 B bond; Ethena goes live in TON wallets
🌠 Plasma Foundation launches XPL token sale
🏗 Bergen County to tokenize $240 B property deeds on Avalanche
🧑⚖️ SEC affirms staking isn’t a securities violation
🛡 Sui community votes to claw back stolen Cetus funds
📈 Binance lists HYPE perps
🚀 Galxe debuts Starboard loyalty layer
Fear & Greed Index:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 57 this week – firmly Neutral. This reflects a cautiously balanced market sentiment. After drifting down from “Greed” levels from prior weeks, traders appear neither overly bullish nor fearful at the moment. In practice, a neutral score suggests investors are waiting for clearer market direction. It’s a notable cooldown from last month’s exuberance (when the index topped 75), indicating that recent price consolidation and mixed news flow have tempered emotions. Bottom line: the market mood is one of guarded optimism, with participants adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Note: The index ranges from 0 (extreme fear during capitulations and sell-offs) to 100 (extreme greed during euphoric, overbought conditions).
ETF Flows:
Spot-Bitcoin ETFs flipped to a net -$145 million for the holiday-shortened 27-30 May window: healthy creations on 27-28 May (+$818 million combined) were more than reversed by a two-day, $963 million exodus led by a single -$431 million pull from BlackRock’s IBIT on 30 May and broad selling across Fidelity’s FBTC (-$199 million), ARK/21Shares’ ARKB (-$282 million), Bitwise’s BITB (-$104 million) and Grayscale’s GBTC (-$134 million).
In stark contrast, spot-Ethereum funds attracted +$286 million, their best weekly haul in recent times; BlackRock’s ETHA added +$206 million, Fidelity’s FETH +$67 million, while modest buying in ETHV, QETH, and the Grayscale trust offset Bitwise ETHE’s minor-$5 million outflow. The split underscores a short-term rotation, with investors taking profits in Bitcoin vehicles while continuing to build exposure to Ether.
Spotlight 🔦
Telegram is issuing a five-year US$1.5 billion bond at roughly 9 percent, backed by BlackRock, Citadel and other institutional investors; the proceeds will refinance debt maturing in 2024 and fund expansion, and the deal shows Wall Street trusts Pavel Durov’s forecast of US$2 billion revenue and US$700 million profit in 2025, a vote of confidence that pushed Toncoin up 13 percent.
Almost simultaneously, Ethena has wired its USDe synthetic stablecoin, now yielding about 18 percent APY, straight into the main TON wallets (Tonkeeper, Tonhub, and MyTonWallet) so any of Telegram’s 800 million users can swap tokens, park dollars, and earn yield without leaving the chat screen. This seamless journey, free of extra apps or fiddly browser extensions, turns Telegram into a crypto super-app reminiscent of WeChat, while the bond raises knits together big-tech reach, Wall-Street capital and Web3 rails in a combination few rivals can match. TON, once spun off after regulatory setbacks, suddenly enjoys default distribution across one of the world’s largest messaging networks; add high-yield stablecoins, in-app payments and tradable username NFTs and you have a retail on-ramp most Layer-1s can only envy.
If even a modest slice of Telegram’s audience adopts these features for everyday payments, gaming or savings, TON’s network effects could snowball quickly.
Rapid Reflexivity: Quick Market Takes ⚡
Treasuries tilt to crypto: SharpLink’s $425 M ETH allocation, DJT’s $2.5 B BTC deal, Strive’s $750 M raise, and GameStop’s 4,710-BTC buy confirm a fresh wave of corporate balance-sheet crypto plays.
Circle’s twin moves: A formal NYSE IPO filing underscores stablecoins’ maturing business model, while the firm’s $58 M USDC freeze shows it will wield blacklist power when regulators knock.
Solana lands MetaMask: Native SOL wallets inside MetaMask give 30 million users one-click DeFi on Solana, erasing a key UX hurdle.
Telegram × TON momentum: Telegram’s $1.5 B bond raise fortifies its war-chest just as Ethena’s high-yield USDe hits major TON wallets, turning the chat app into a stealth DeFi on-ramp.
Regulatory clarity tailwind: The SEC’s statement that staking doesn’t breach securities law removes a lingering cloud over ETH and LSD protocols.
Avalanche gets real-world kudos: Bergen County’s plan to tokenize $240 B in property deeds vaults AVAX into institutional RWA conversations.
Security & recovery: Sui DAO’s vote to refund users after the Cetus hack signals growing on-chain governance muscle in crisis response.
Trading venues expand: Binance’s HYPE perps listing and OpenSea’s V2 roadmap both target deeper liquidity and improved fee structures, while Galxe’s Starboard introduces cross-app loyalty scores to incentivise on-chain activity.
The Solana ecosystem took the largest hit this week, with 3 out of the 4 top losers stemming from this ecosystem.
Disclaimer: This research report is exactly that — a research report. It is not intended to serve as financial advice, nor should you blindly assume that any of the information is accurate without confirming through your own research. Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and other digital assets are incredibly risky, and nothing in this report should be considered an endorsement to buy or sell any asset. Never invest more than you are willing to lose, and understand the risk that you are taking. Do your own research. All information in this report is for educational purposes only and should not be the basis for any investment decisions that you make.